Cyclone outlook for the Coral Sea

[Renenet]

For those in Far North Queensland:

Just in case anyone has stopped monitoring the Bureau's cyclone bulletins: Tropical Cyclone 3-day outlook for The Coral Sea

We may get one for the 2012-2013 so-called wet season after all.

 

[borntobnude]

You FNQ ers all always on about the weather Too hot /wet wetand hot , as i tell my mother in mission beach ( who's house was directly under the point on the map when Yasi crossed the coast ) if you live there they will come !!

And you should know they dont always turn up in the WET ,, wasnt it AVU that came late and took out Ayr and Home Hill

 

[Renenet]

I simply posted it to let people know that there could be one on the way. Some may not be expecting one this late in the season, especially if they're new to the area.

 

[pseudechis4740]

Thanks for the heads up. I had written off this cyclone season.

 

[Firepac]

At this early stage most main computer models, EC, GFS and BoM's Access model, are in general agreement and have a tropical low/Cat 1 TC crossing the Cape somewhere around Princess Charlotte Bay on Tuesday. Obviously things can change over the next few days. Certainly worth keeping an eye on.

 

[Renenet]

I had to look that up. To spare others the trouble, Princess Charlotte Bay is 350 kilometres north of Cairns.

Firepac, where do you get the EC and GFS model data?

 

[Firepac]

Firepac, where do you get the EC and GFS model data?

EC is run twice a day and updated at 5am and 5pm, the link is animated and shows Rainfall and MSLP (Mean Sea Level Pressure). You can clearly see the low approach and cross the Cape Rainfall and MSLP

GFS can be found on the Weatherzone site 7-day GFS model weather forecast of isobars and rain

 

[Renenet]

Cool, thanks.

 

[SteveNT]

May cyclones are rare but it happens. All cyclones have inherent dangers. My advice....treat cyclones like vens. Dont drop your guard.

 

[borntobnude]

I simply posted it to let people know that there could be one on the way. Some may not be expecting one this late in the season, especially if they're new to the area.

yes i understand , i spoke to my mother and her friend ( Lifetime local) the human barometer said it was not going to get as low as M B . good enough for mum to not panic !! and the cassowaries havent left the beach so its probably true .

 

[Firepac]

NOT a cyclone yet but the bureau has issued its first advice for this system and declared a cyclone watch.....

Tropical Cyclone Advice for System 1 (QLD)

 

[SteveNT]

We're already getting a few storms as it creeps closer. Good thing. Half of Arnhem Land is already on fire after this crap Wet season.

 

[Renenet]

Good to hear, Steve. I mean, of course, that you're getting rain, not that half of Arnhem land is on fire! We are getting a little bit of wind, but no real rain yet. As I understand it, the cyclone isn't going to affect Cairns directly, but it should bring us some rain. Fingers crossed, the wet season has been total garbage here too.

 

[andynic07]

.

 

[Renenet]

TC Zane is now a category 1 and predicted to become a category 2.

Tropical Cyclone Advice for System 1 (QLD)

To quote from the advice:

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Cape Grenville to Cape Tribulation.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Mapoon to the Torres Strait Islands to Cape Grenville.

 

[Renenet]

And now a cat 2, building into a cat 3.

To anyone in the affected area: stay safe, guys!

 

[Firepac]

That's inzane development! IMO the stronger he gets the more southerly ( or less northerly ) his track will become as gains the power to erode the ridging that the bom is predicting will send him WNW.

Edit: by that I don't mean he will go south I mean more westerly rather than WNW, or even WSW depending on his final strength and height.

 

[Firepac]

For those interested in more detailed analysis of TC Zane and its likely movements check out the video here Oz Cyclone Chasers - Australia's first cyclone chasers

 

[Renenet]

At least it seems to be weakening as it approaches the coast. I don't think it actually got to a category 3, unless that happened overnight. Still no rain here in Cairns. If there has to be a cyclone, I really hope we get some water out of it. We need a drink.

 

[Zipidee]

Ran out of puff as it approached the coast. Cyclone warnings were cancelled by the BOM this morning.